DFW added 180,000 net new residents in the past 12 months — 58% from international migration, 14% domestic. Fort Worth crossed 1 million residents, becoming the 12th largest U.S. city. International migration into Dallas County surged, driving demand for ethnic grocery, restaurant, and service retail in South and East Dallas corridors.
Cap rates projected to compress slightly to 6.3%–6.5% over the next 12 months as investor competition for quality DFW retail intensifies. East Dallas and neighborhood strip centers will compress fastest.
| Product Type | Price/SF Range | Cap Rate | Trend | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Tenant NNN (Investment Grade) | $400 – $600 | 5.0% – 5.5% | ▲ Compressing | Walgreens, Dollar General, fast food |
| Single Tenant NNN (Local/Regional) | $250 – $400 | 5.5% – 6.5% | ▲ Active | High investor demand |
| Grocery-Anchored Center | $300 – $450 | 5.5% – 6.5% | ▲ Premium | H-E-B anchored commands top dollar |
| Neighborhood Strip Center | $200 – $325 | 6.5% – 7.5% | ▲ Strong Demand | Best value-add opportunity |
| Power Center / Big Box | $150 – $250 | 6.5% – 7.5% | ▶ Flat | Anchor quality drives variance |
| Lifestyle / Mixed-Use | $350 – $600 | 5.0% – 6.0% | ▲ High Demand | Premium for experiential tenancy |
| East/South Dallas Strip | $150 – $275 | 7.0% – 8.5% | ▲ Best Yield | Lowest vacancy; highest cap rate |
| DFW Market Average | $276 | 6.7% | ▲ Strong | CoStar Q1 2026 |
East and South Dallas strip centers trade at $150–$275/SF with cap rates of 7.0%–8.5% — the best risk-adjusted yield in all of DFW retail. Limited new supply keeps vacancy below 3% in these corridors.
| Submarket | Avg Rate/SF/Yr | Vacancy | Leasing Activity |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Central Dallas | $35 – $45 | 4.2% | ▲ Very High |
| Central Dallas / Uptown | $38 – $55 | 4.8% | ▲ High |
| Frisco / Prosper | $32 – $45 | 5.1% | ▲ Very High |
| McKinney / Allen | $28 – $40 | 4.9% | ▲ High |
| Plano / Legacy | $26 – $38 | 5.2% | ▲ High |
| East Dallas | $18 – $28 | 2.3% | ▲ Active |
| South Dallas | $14 – $22 | 3.1% | ▲ Growing |
| DFW Average | $21.23 | 5.4% | ▶ Stable |
| Southwest Dallas | $12 – $18 | 7.2% | ▼ Soft |
| Downtown CBD | $22 – $35 | 8.4% | ▼ Weakening |
H-E-B anchor presence is pushing first-generation lease rates above $40/SF in Collin County submarkets. Time-to-lease has fallen sharply in centers near new H-E-B locations as national tenants compete aggressively for co-tenancy.
| Metric | Current | 12-Month Forecast | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marketwide Vacancy | 5.4% | 5.0% – 5.3% | ▲ Tightening |
| East Dallas Vacancy | 2.3% | 2.0% – 2.5% | ▶ Stable/Tight |
| Avg Asking Rent | $21.23/SF | $22.50 – $24/SF | ▲ Growing |
| Rent Growth Rate | 7.3% YoY | 3% – 5% | ▶ Moderating |
| Avg Cap Rate | 6.7% | 6.3% – 6.5% | ▲ Compressing |
| Avg Price Per SF | $276 | $285 – $300 | ▲ Appreciating |
| Construction Pipeline | 7.0M SF | 6.5M – 7.5M SF | ▶ Disciplined |
| Investment Volume | $97.7M/qtr | $110M+ /qtr | ▲ Increasing |
| Structure | Who Pays Expenses | All-In Cost/SF | Common In |
|---|---|---|---|
| Triple Net (NNN) | Tenant pays base + taxes + insurance + CAM | Base + $3–$6/SF | Strip centers, NNN retail, anchored centers |
| Modified Gross (MG) | Landlord covers base year; tenant pays increases | Base + $1–$3/SF | Class B multi-tenant retail |
| Full Service Gross (FSG) | Landlord covers all operating expenses | All-in — no add-ons | Rare in retail; some lifestyle centers |
| Percentage Lease | Base rent + % of gross sales (5–8%) | Variable by sales | Anchor tenants, large format retail |
A 2,000 SF storefront quoted at $20/SF NNN = $40,000/year in base rent. Add $4/SF CAM/taxes/insurance = $8,000 more. Add utilities and percentage rent = total occupancy cost of $55,000–$65,000 per year. Always underwrite all-in cost, not just base rent.
| Submarket | Base/SF | NNN Add | All-In/SF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Dallas / Uptown | $38–$55 | $4–$6 | $42–$61 |
| North Central Dallas | $28–$45 | $4–$5 | $32–$50 |
| East Dallas Outlying | $28.30 | $3–$4 | $31–$33 |
| Frisco / Prosper | $32–$45 | $4–$6 | $36–$51 |
| McKinney / Allen | $28–$40 | $4–$5 | $32–$45 |
| Plano / Legacy | $26–$38 | $4–$5 | $30–$43 |
| South Dallas | $14–$22 | $2–$3 | $16–$25 |
| SW Dallas | $12–$18 | $2–$3 | $14–$21 |
| DFW Average | $21.23 | $3–$5 | $24–$26 |
East Dallas Outlying commands $28.30/SF base — the highest in DFW — at just 2.3% vacancy. Landlords here have significant pricing power and minimal incentive to offer concessions. New-to-market tenants are paying at or above asking.
| Loan Type | Rate Range | LTV | DSCR Req. | Term |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMBS (Investment Grade NNN) | 6.0%–6.5% | 65%–70% | 1.25x | 5–10 yr fixed |
| SBA 504 (Owner-Occupied) | 5.5%–6.0% | Up to 90% | 1.25x | 25 yr amort |
| Conventional Bank (Strip) | 6.5%–7.5% | 65%–75% | 1.20x–1.25x | 3–7 yr fixed |
| Life Company (Stabilized) | 5.75%–6.25% | 55%–65% | 1.30x | 10–15 yr fixed |
| Bridge / Value-Add | 7.5%–9.5% | 65%–75% | 1.10x–1.15x | 2–3 yr floating |
| Hard Money / Rehab | 10%–12%+ | 60%–65% | N/A | 12–24 months |
At current cap rates of 5.0%–6.0% for NNN and lifestyle retail, and conventional loan rates of 6.5%–7.5%, negative leverage is a real risk. The all-in cap rate must exceed the debt constant to achieve positive leverage. Run full debt coverage analysis before underwriting any acquisition.
| Firm | Specialty | Primary Submarkets | Known For |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weitzman | Project leasing, tenant rep, management | DFW-wide; grocery-anchored | Dominant retail-only platform in Texas. Manages 44M SF. Leases Bank of America Plaza retail. Primary leasing agent for grocery-anchored centers across DFW. |
| CBRE | Investment sales, leasing, tenant rep | North Dallas, Legacy, Uptown | Largest global platform. Strongest in institutional-quality assets and large investment sales. Power Brokers: J. Scott Moore, Conrad McEachern, Phil Puckett, Sarah Leupold, Andrew Lehner. |
| Edge Realty Partners | Tenant rep, project leasing, investment | Suburban corridors, Collin County | Dallas-headquartered retail specialist. Strong tenant rep practice for national retailers entering DFW. Warren Smith named 2026 D CEO Power Broker. |
| SRS Real Estate Partners | Retail investment sales, tenant rep | DFW-wide; NNN investment | National retail specialist with strong Dallas presence. Multiple 2026 Power Brokers: Karla Smith, Ryan Johnson, Kaylyn Hudson, Tyler Grisham, Dawn Greiner. |
| The Retail Connection | Tenant rep, project leasing | DFW-wide; lifestyle & power | Dallas-based retail specialist. Steve Greenberg and Steve Lieberman are among the most active retail tenant reps in North Texas. Strong national retailer relationships. |
| Venture Commercial | Tenant rep, investment sales, leasing | East Dallas, urban, mixed-use | Strong urban Dallas focus. Natalia Singer and Amanda Welles named 2026 D CEO Power Brokers. Known for East Dallas and urban corridor expertise. |
| Matthews RE Investment | NNN investment sales | DFW-wide NNN market | National NNN sales platform with strong Dallas presence. Scotty Latimer and Kevin McKenna named 2026 D CEO Power Brokers. High transaction volume. |
| JLL | Investment sales, leasing, tenant rep | North Dallas, Frisco, Legacy | Global platform with institutional focus. Mark Newman, Amy Nott, Curt Holcomb named 2026 Power Brokers. Strong in large-format and power center leasing. |
| Henry S. Miller | Retail leasing, investment, management | South/East Dallas, value add | Long-established Dallas firm. Scott Axelrod, Lane Kommer, Darrell Hurmis among 2026 Power Brokers. Known for value-oriented and middle-market retail assets. |
| Cushman & Wakefield | Investment sales, leasing | DFW-wide institutional | Global platform. Bo Bond, Rick Hughes, Ali Greenwood named 2026 Power Brokers. Strongest in large institutional investment sales and major center leasing. |
D CEO Magazine 2026 Power Brokers Report · Weitzman Group · Edge Realty Partners · SRS Real Estate Partners · CoStar Group