"Phoenix retail does not have the complexity of a Houston or the brand narrative of a Waco. What it has is the most straightforward demand story in American retail: 100,000 net new residents per year. Every year. For forty years. Rooftops create retail. Phoenix adds more rooftops than any metro in the Southwest, every single year, without fail. The California exodus amplifies that number. TSMC amplifies it further by bringing a high-income semiconductor engineering workforce that will sustain premium retail spending well above the Phoenix average. At 6.4% cap rates in a market adding 100,000 annual residents, the question is not whether Phoenix retail is a good investment. The question is whether you want to own the grocery-anchored strip at the center of the fastest-growing trade area in America."
Stephen Crittenden · Owner, Crittenden Company · 15+ Years Commercial Real Estate
5.1M
Phoenix MSA Population
▲ +100K net new residents per year
94.2%
Retail Occupancy Rate
▲ Tightening from 93.4% in 2024
2.6M
Total MSA Jobs
▲ +72K new jobs forecast 2026
6th
Largest U.S. City
▲ No state income tax (flat 2.5%)
02 / 14
Demographic Shifts — Last 12 Months
California Exodus + TSMC Tech Class Upgrading Phoenix Consumer Demographics
Phoenix's Retail Consumer Is Getting Wealthier
Phoenix's inbound migration is not uniform — it is skewed toward higher-income households. California relocators typically arrive with higher incomes, greater home equity, and stronger retail spending profiles than the Texas-born Phoenix average. TSMC's $100,000–$180,000 semiconductor engineering workforce is the latest addition to a demographic upgrade cycle that has been strengthening Phoenix's retail market for the past decade. The result: Phoenix retail rents are growing not just because of population volume, but because per-household retail spending is increasing simultaneously.
Chandler / SE Valley HH Growth
+12%
Goodyear / Queen Creek HH Growth
+14%
CA Relocator Income Premium
+$28K
TSMC Workforce Avg. Income
$140K+
Downtown PHX Office Vacancy
20%
☀️
California Migration Effect
Phoenix is the #1 California-to-Arizona relocation destination. Californians arriving in Phoenix bring above-average incomes, high retail spending habits formed in expensive coastal markets, and a preference for premium grocery, restaurant, and lifestyle retail that sustains above-market rents in North Scottsdale, Chandler, and Paradise Valley.
🔍
West Valley Surge
Goodyear and Queen Creek are growing at 12–14% annually — the fastest rates in the Phoenix MSA. These outer suburbs are the development frontier for new grocery-anchored retail as the rooftop count outpaces existing supply. Early movers in well-located suburban retail here will capture first-generation lease rates from national tenants seeking the affordability migration consumer base.
🏛
Downtown Office Headwind
Downtown Phoenix office vacancy at approximately 20% continues to suppress weekday retail foot traffic in the CBD. Street-level retail on Central Avenue and Downtown Phoenix corridors not adjacent to the sports/entertainment district faces structural headwinds from hybrid work. F&B and experiential formats are the only categories actively leasing downtown.
03 / 14
Infrastructure — Confirmed & Proposed
TSMC & Loop System Are Phoenix's Best Retail Infrastructure
✅ Confirmed Projects
TSMC Arizona Fab 1 & 2 — $40B
TSMC's Phase 1 fab (N3 process node, 3,000 direct employees) is operational. Phase 2 (N2 process node, additional 3,000+ employees) is under construction with completion targeted for 2027–2028. Each phase adds thousands of high-income engineering workers in the Chandler/North Scottsdale corridor — directly driving demand for premium retail in the TSMC adjacency. National retailers are now actively opening first-time Chandler/Gilbert locations to serve this demographic.
Operational + BuildingChandler / SE Valley
Loop 202 South Mountain Extension
The completed Loop 202 South Mountain extension has unlocked the Laveen / Southwest Phoenix corridor for residential and retail development. This infrastructure investment is converting a previously underserved area into a viable retail trade area — generating demand for grocery-anchored retail, quick service restaurants, and service retail in a rapidly growing lower-middle income residential corridor.
CompleteSW Phoenix / Laveen
Phoenix Light Rail Expansion
Valley Metro Rail continues expanding — with lines serving Tempe, Mesa, Gilbert, and the Northwest Valley under development. Light rail stations consistently generate TOD (transit-oriented development) retail demand for ground-floor formats as residential density builds around station areas. Station-adjacent retail locations in the expansion corridors are early-mover opportunities.
ActiveMesa / Gilbert Expansion
💬 Proposed / In Development
Intel Ocotillo Campus Expansion — $20B
Intel's two-fab Ocotillo expansion in Chandler — the largest domestic semiconductor investment in Intel's history — will add 10,000+ direct and indirect workers to the SE Valley over 5–7 years as fabs complete and ramp. The combined TSMC + Intel SE Valley cluster is creating the most concentrated tech-manufacturing retail demand upgrade in any U.S. metro currently in progress.
Under ConstructionChandler / Gilbert
West Valley Growth — Queen Creek / Maricopa
Queen Creek and Maricopa in the Southeast Valley are now among the fastest-growing cities in Arizona by percentage — adding households at 12–16% annually. The retail supply serving these communities has lagged dramatically behind population growth, creating early development opportunities for grocery-anchored and neighborhood strip retail in corridors that are years away from being fully served by national retail concepts.
Development PlaySE Phoenix Outer Ring
Phoenix Bio-Medical Campus
The Phoenix Bio-Medical Campus adjacent to downtown — home to the University of Arizona College of Medicine Phoenix and several biotech firms — is expanding its research and clinical footprint. Healthcare campus growth generates reliable retail demand in the adjacency: pharmacy, specialty food, professional services, and casual dining sustain above-average retail spending in healthcare worker corridors.
ExpandingDowntown / Biomedical
04 / 14
Traffic Patterns & Cap Rate History
Traffic Shifts & Cap Rate Trajectory
Traffic Changes YoY — Key Corridors
Chandler / Gilbert (TSMC)
+18%
Goodyear / Queen Creek
+16%
Old Town / N. Scottsdale
+9%
Tempe / ASU Corridor
+7%
Downtown Phoenix CBD
-8%
Cap Rate History — Last 12 Months
Phoenix Retail Cap Rate Trend (Avg)
Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q2 2026
12-Month Cap Rate Forecast
Phoenix retail cap rates projected to compress toward 5.8%–6.2% over the next 12 months as institutional capital returns to Sun Belt retail allocation. TSMC corridor and high-growth suburban centers compress fastest. Scottsdale luxury already trading below 5.5%.
05 / 14
Investment Metrics
Average Price Per SF By Retail Product Type
Product Type
Price/SF Range
Cap Rate
Trend
Notes
Single Tenant NNN (Investment Grade)
$380 – $560
4.75% – 5.5%
▲ Compressing
Chick-fil-A, CVS, Walgreens, Starbucks
Single Tenant NNN (Local/Regional)
$240 – $380
5.5% – 6.5%
▲ Active
Strong national 1031 buyer demand
Grocery-Anchored Center
$285 – $450
5.5% – 6.25%
▲ Premium
Fry's / Kroger, Sprouts, Safeway
Neighborhood Strip Center
$195 – $320
6.25% – 7.25%
▲ Value-add opportunity
Growth corridor plays
Scottsdale / Old Town Premium
$480 – $720
4.25% – 5.25%
▲ Luxury corridor
Premium luxury / F&B tenants
Chandler / TSMC Corridor
$320 – $480
5.25% – 6.0%
▲ Fastest growing
Tech-worker premium consumer
Phoenix Market Average
$268
6.4%
▲ Appreciating
CoStar Q2 2026 Estimate
Scottsdale Premium
$600
Investment Grade NNN
$470
TSMC / Chandler
$400
Grocery-Anchored
$368
Phoenix Average
$268
Neighborhood Strip
$258
TSMC Corridor Premium
Chandler / Gilbert strip centers adjacent to TSMC and Intel campus corridors are commanding rent premiums of 15–25% above comparable South or West Phoenix product — reflecting the high-income semiconductor engineering workforce's willingness to pay for premium food, fitness, and lifestyle retail near their workplace. This premium will compound as the fab workforce grows toward 25,000 direct employees.
06 / 14
Submarket Analysis
Average Lease Rates By Submarket
Submarket
Avg Rate/SF/Yr
Vacancy
Leasing Activity
Scottsdale / Old Town / Kierland
$38 – $60
3.8%
▲ Very High
Chandler / Gilbert (TSMC Corridor)
$30 – $48
4.6%
▲ Very High
Tempe / Mill Ave / ASU
$28 – $44
4.4%
▲ Very High
North Phoenix / Desert Ridge
$26 – $40
5.4%
▲ Active
Goodyear / Avondale (W. Valley)
$20 – $32
5.6%
▲ Active / Growing
Mesa / East Valley
$20 – $30
6.0%
▲ Active
Phoenix Market Average
$22.20
5.8%
▲ Active
Downtown Phoenix CBD
$22 – $36
9.4%
▼ Softening
Most Active Leasing Submarkets
Chandler / Gilbert (TSMC)
★★★
Scottsdale / Old Town
★★★
Goodyear / Queen Creek
★★★
Tempe / ASU
★★
North Phoenix
★★
Downtown CBD
★
Grocery Anchor Strategy
Fry's Food Stores (Kroger subsidiary) and Sprouts Farmers Market are the two dominant grocery anchors in Phoenix. Fry's anchor locations command co-tenancy premiums in suburban strip centers identical to H-E-B's role in Texas. Sprouts-anchored centers attract the premium health-conscious consumer demographic concentrated in Scottsdale, Chandler, and Tempe — the highest-spending per-household retail segments in the Phoenix market.
07 / 14
Tenant Activity — Last 12 Months
Notable Openings, Expansions And Vacating Tenants
▲ Expanding & Opening
Premium F&B — Chandler / TSMC Corridor
National and regional upscale restaurant concepts are accelerating openings in the Chandler/Gilbert corridor as the TSMC workforce creates a demand base for premium dining previously concentrated only in Scottsdale. Fast casual premium (Flower Child, True Food Kitchen), craft cocktail bars, and chef-driven concepts are all actively expanding their SE Valley footprints in 2026.
ActiveChandler / Gilbert
Luxury Retail — Old Town Scottsdale
Old Town Scottsdale and Kierland Commons continue attracting luxury and premium retail brands seeking a Southwest flagship. The Scottsdale Fashion Square remains one of the highest-grossing malls per SF in the United States — consistently outperforming national averages on sales-per-SF due to the concentrated wealth of the Paradise Valley/North Scottsdale residential base and the strong tourist/snowbird visitor demographic.
ActiveScottsdale Luxury
Grocery Expansion — West Valley
Grocery concepts — Fry's, Sprouts, Safeway/Albertsons, and emerging formats — are actively developing new West Valley locations as the Goodyear/Avondale/Buckeye residential boom creates underserved grocery trade areas. Each new grocery store anchors a full retail center and triggers 30,000–50,000 SF of co-tenancy demand from national tenants seeking adjacency.
ExpandingWest Valley
▼ Watch Areas
Softgoods / Enclosed Mall Pressure
National apparel chains continue reducing Phoenix footprints at enclosed malls — particularly at Metrocenter (in active repositioning), Paradise Valley Mall (partially demolished for mixed-use conversion), and Superstition Springs Center. The mall repositioning trend is accelerating in Phoenix as anchor vacancy requires creative solutions. Avoid inline enclosed mall retail without understanding specific anchor replacement plans.
ContractingEnclosed Malls
Downtown CBD Office-Dependent
Downtown Phoenix retail dependent on office foot traffic continues to face structural headwinds from 20% office vacancy and hybrid work patterns. Street retail on Central Avenue and Camelback that served the pre-pandemic office commuter base has not recovered. Experiential F&B and sports district adjacency (Chase Field, Footprint Center) are the only formats performing in the CBD today.
Vacancy RisingStructural Shift
North Scottsdale Overretailed
Portions of the North Scottsdale / Pima Road corridor were developed with aggressive retail assumptions that have not been met as population growth concentrated further east (Chandler) and further west (Goodyear) rather than following the premium Scottsdale brand northward. Select power center and lifestyle center product here faces above-average vacancy relative to market average. Evaluate carefully before acquiring in this specific submarket.
Select CautionVacancy Elevated
08 / 14
Vacancy Analysis
Where Vacancy Is Tightening And Where It Is Rising
Tightening Vacancy
Scottsdale / Old Town
3.8%
Tempe / ASU
4.4%
Chandler / Gilbert (TSMC)
4.6%
Phoenix Market Average
5.8%
Rising Vacancy
Downtown CBD
9.4%
Enclosed Mall Inline
11.2%
✅
Why Scottsdale Stays Tight
Old Town Scottsdale and Kierland Commons have virtually no new retail supply pipeline — zoning and land costs protect existing landlords from commoditized competition. The tourist premium (Scottsdale draws 20M+ visitors/year as a resort destination) adds a captive non-residential consumer base that sustains above-average sales-per-SF year-round. This is the most defensively positioned retail corridor in Arizona.
📊
Historical Context
Phoenix's 5.8% retail vacancy is comparable to the U.S. average (5.5–6.0%) and well below the Phoenix historical average of 7–9% during correction periods. The market has never experienced extended vacancy above 10% outside of the 2008–2010 recession. Population growth provides a structural floor that prevents Phoenix from experiencing the prolonged retail corrections seen in stagnant Midwest and Northeast markets.
⚠
Mall Repositioning Urgency
Phoenix has an above-average concentration of enclosed malls relative to its market size — a legacy of 1980s–1990s suburban mall development that has left several centers in need of reinvention. Investors approaching any enclosed mall-adjacent retail in Phoenix should carefully assess the specific anchor replacement plan. Malls being converted to mixed-use (Paradise Valley Mall) will generate retail demand; stagnant malls facing decline will create retail headwinds.
09 / 14
Opportunity Identification
Value-Add & Development Submarkets to Watch Now
★
Chandler / TSMC — Highest Conviction
4.6% vacancy with 18% traffic growth. The TSMC workforce premium is creating demand for premium retail that Chandler has never previously supported. Strip centers and pad sites within 5 miles of the TSMC fab site at $260–$350/SF and 5.5%–6.0% cap rates represent the strongest near-term rent growth trajectory in the Phoenix market. The demographic upgrade from semiconductor workers is permanent and compounding.
Buy NowTSMC Premium
🏠
Goodyear / Queen Creek — Growth Frontier
12–14% annual household growth with retail supply dramatically lagging. Grocery-anchored pads and strips at $160–$240/SF with 6.5%–7.5% cap rates. First-generation development opportunities as national tenants follow the rooftop count. Early buyers capturing first-generation lease rates from Fry's and Sprouts-adjacent concepts will compound rents significantly over 3–5 year hold periods.
Development PlayGrowth Frontier
🏫
Tempe / ASU — Irreplaceable
ASU's 58,000 students create a permanent high-frequency retail consumer base second only to Scottsdale in spending intensity per acre. Mill Avenue and Apache Boulevard corridors have some of the highest pedestrian retail foot traffic in Arizona. Strip and pad acquisitions at 6.0%–6.8% with below-market in-place rents and strong renewal probability are the Waco-equivalent play in Phoenix — student demand doesn't leave.
Core AcquisitionStudent Demand
📉
North Scottsdale — Selective Value-Add
The premium Scottsdale brand sustains above-average rents even in slower-growing corridor segments. Well-located strip centers at $240–$350/SF trading at 6.0%–7.0% in the Kierland/DC Ranch adjacency offer core income with luxury demographic protection. Avoid off-corridor Pima Road product with vacant big-box exposure. Target density-protected locations adjacent to established luxury residential nodes.
SelectiveLuxury Premium
🏛
Mixed-Use TOD — Light Rail Nodes
Phoenix Metro Rail expansion into Mesa, Gilbert, and the Northwest Valley is creating TOD retail opportunities as residential density builds around station areas. Early mixed-use ground-floor retail acquisitions or development adjacent to new station locations represent 5–10 year value creation plays as the ridership and residential density matrix matures.
Long-TermTOD Play
⚠
Avoid: Softgoods Enclosed Mall Inline
Traditional enclosed mall inline retail without a clear entertainment/dining/mixed-use repositioning plan is the highest-risk retail category in Phoenix today. Metrocenter, Fiesta Mall, and West Valley portions of Arrowhead Town Center all face structural anchor vacancy challenges. Only acquire enclosed mall product if you have a specific experiential repositioning capital plan ready to execute.
AvoidRepositioning Only
10 / 14
12-Month Forecast
June 2026 — May 2027 What the Data Predicts
Metric
Current
12-Month Forecast
Direction
Marketwide Vacancy
5.8%
5.2% – 5.6%
▲ Tightening
Scottsdale / TSMC Vacancy
3.8%–4.6%
3.4% – 4.2%
▶ Tight
Avg Asking Rent
$22.20/SF
$23.10 – $24.40/SF
▲ Growing
Rent Growth Rate
4.8% YoY
4% – 6%
▶ Sustained
Avg Cap Rate
6.4%
5.8% – 6.1%
▲ Compressing
Avg Price Per SF
$268
$284 – $302
▲ Appreciating
TSMC Corridor Demand
Strong
Very Strong
▲ Accelerating
Grocery-Anchored Absorption
Positive
Strong Positive
▲ Continued
▶ Structural Rent Growth
Phoenix's 100,000 annual net new residents create the most mechanically reliable retail demand growth of any U.S. metro. Each resident household spends $14,000–$18,000 annually on retail and food. 100,000 households = $1.4–$1.8B of incremental annual retail demand. At a market vacancy of 5.8%, that demand finds existing tenants, accelerates lease renewals, and sustains rent growth above the national average indefinitely.
▲ Cap Rate Compression Incoming
Phoenix retail at 6.4% vs. Austin at 6.2% and Dallas at 5.8% — despite Phoenix being the largest Sun Belt retail market — represents a meaningful compression opportunity. As TSMC validation drives national capital to Phoenix allocation, compression toward 5.8%–6.1% will produce 5–8% appreciation on top of current rent growth. The Chandler/Scottsdale premium corridor will compress below 5.5% within 12 months.
⚠ Heat Risk Note
Phoenix's extreme summer heat (115°F+ days) suppresses outdoor retail foot traffic in July–August — the opposite of Texas's leasing season pattern. Phoenix retail's strongest leasing months are October–April, when snowbirds and seasonal residents augment the permanent population base. Underwrite seasonal rent collections accordingly, and evaluate retailers' operating models for heat-season foot traffic retention strategies.
Phoenix NNN expenses are somewhat higher than Texas markets due to Arizona's property tax assessment methodology and the higher replacement cost of roofing and HVAC systems that must manage extreme summer heat. Budget $4–$7/SF NNN on top of base rent for most strip and neighborhood center acquisitions. TSMC corridor product carries slightly higher NNN expenses reflecting newer vintage construction costs.
Submarket
Base/SF
NNN Add
All-In/SF
Scottsdale / Old Town
$38–$60
$5–$8
$43–$68
Chandler / Gilbert (TSMC)
$30–$48
$5–$7
$35–$55
Tempe / ASU
$28–$44
$4–$6
$32–$50
North Phoenix / Desert Ridge
$26–$40
$4–$6
$30–$46
Goodyear / West Valley
$20–$32
$4–$5
$24–$37
Phoenix Average
$22.20
$4–$6
$26–$28
Premium at Affordable Scale
Phoenix retail rents at $22–$48/SF in the prime corridors represent premium market rents for a Sun Belt market — above Texas markets (except Austin's SoCo) and below California equivalents. For tenants relocating from LA or SF, Phoenix retail occupancy costs represent a 40–60% savings that dramatically improves operating margins and sustains long-term renewals in ways that California locations cannot match.
12 / 14
Retail Financing Environment — Q2 2026
Financing Terms Phoenix Retail Market
Loan Type
Rate Range
LTV
DSCR Req.
Term
CMBS (Investment Grade NNN)
5.75%–6.25%
65%–70%
1.25x
5–10 yr fixed
SBA 504 (Owner-Occupied)
5.5%–6.0%
Up to 90%
1.25x
25 yr amort
Conventional Bank (Strip)
6.25%–7.25%
65%–75%
1.20x–1.25x
3–7 yr fixed
Life Company (Stabilized)
5.5%–6.25%
55%–65%
1.30x
10–15 yr fixed
Bridge / Value-Add
7.25%–9.0%
65%–75%
1.10x
2–3 yr floating
Positive Leverage Context
Phoenix's 6.4% average cap rate creates positive leverage for grocery-anchored, strip, and suburban corridor retail financed at conventional bank rates of 6.25%–7.25% with 65%–70% LTV. Premium Scottsdale and TSMC corridor assets trading at 5.0%–5.5% cap rates are in negative leverage territory — underwrite these as rent-growth/appreciation plays, not current-yield income positions. Run full DSCR analysis for every acquisition regardless of submarket.
Phoenix Lender Landscape
National Platforms — Active
Phoenix is large enough and liquid enough to attract every major national commercial real estate lender — Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Comerica, and CMBS platforms all maintain active Phoenix retail lending programs. The market's size and institutional visibility means competitive debt pricing is readily available for well-stabilized assets across all product types.
Arizona Local Banks
Western Alliance Bank (Phoenix-based, nationally significant), National Bank of Arizona, and Arizona Bank & Trust are the most active local lenders for Phoenix retail. Western Alliance in particular has deep Phoenix market knowledge and competitive pricing for both strip center and grocery-anchored acquisitions.
Grocery-Anchored — Best Terms
Fry's (Kroger), Sprouts, and Safeway/Albertsons anchor leases qualify for life company and CMBS at the lowest market rates. Phoenix grocery anchors are treated identically to H-E-B in Texas — investment-grade underwriting with 10–15 year fixed term options. TSMC corridor grocery centers command the most competitive agency terms in the metro.
SBA 504 Active
SBA 504 is actively used by Phoenix small business owners acquiring retail and flex space. The Arizona SBDC network provides strong support for SBA borrowers. Arizona's business-friendly regulatory environment has generated an above-average small business formation rate — sustaining consistent SBA 504 activity for owner-user retail acquisitions across all Phoenix submarkets.
13 / 14
Brokerage Landscape — Phoenix Retail
Who Controls Leasing In Each Phoenix Submarket
Firm
Specialty
Primary Submarkets
Known For
CBRE
Investment sales, leasing, tenant rep
Scottsdale, institutional
Largest global platform. Dominant in Scottsdale institutional investment sales and Fashion Square / Kierland leasing. Strongest national buyer access for premium Phoenix retail assets. Most active institutional investment sales broker in the metro.
JLL
Investment sales, leasing, tenant rep
Phoenix-wide; institutional
Global platform with strong Phoenix presence. Active in grocery-anchored and power center investment sales and leasing across the metro. Strong tenant rep practice for national retailers expanding in Phoenix.
Cushman & Wakefield
Investment sales, leasing
Metro-wide institutional
Global platform. Active in large institutional investment sales and major retail center leasing across the Phoenix metro. Strong relationships with national and institutional capital sources.
NAI Horizon
Leasing, investment, tenant rep
Phoenix-wide; local expertise
Arizona's most comprehensive local commercial real estate platform. Deep knowledge of all Phoenix submarkets including suburban corridors that national firms often underserve. Strong local relationships and off-market deal flow across the Valley.
Vestar Development
Development, leasing, management
Power centers, lifestyle
Phoenix-based retail developer with an active Valley portfolio including Desert Ridge Marketplace. Manages 8M+ SF of Arizona retail. The most important development-leasing relationship for power center and lifestyle center investment in the metro.
Colliers International
Investment sales, leasing
Metro-wide; suburban
Global platform with strong Phoenix presence. Active in suburban strip center investment sales and leasing. Good coverage of the West Valley and Southeast Valley growth corridors.
Submarket Broker Dominance
Scottsdale / Old Town Premium
CBRE and JLL dominate institutional Scottsdale investment sales. Cushman & Wakefield active in major center leasing. Local boutique brokers handle many off-market Old Town transactions. Premium Scottsdale assets typically trade with multiple bids — have financing committed before making offers.
Chandler / SE Valley (TSMC)
CBRE, JLL, and NAI Horizon all active in the TSMC corridor. This is the most competitive leasing market in Phoenix — premium tenants are competing for limited available space. Move quickly on well-located strip and pad acquisitions.
West Valley / Growth Corridors
NAI Horizon and Colliers lead in the West Valley suburban corridors. Vestar Development dominates major power and lifestyle center development. These are the development-play corridors — early relationships with local brokers provide first access to pre-development deals.
NNN Metro Wide
CBRE, Marcus & Millichap, and Matthews RE Investment Services lead NNN volume with national buyer access. Phoenix NNN product at 6.0%+ cap rates consistently attracts California, Colorado, and Northeast 1031 exchange buyers seeking yield above coastal market pricing.
Source
CBRE Phoenix Q2 2026 Retail Report · CoStar Group Q2 2026 · JLL Phoenix 2026 Real Estate Outlook · NAI Horizon Phoenix Retail 2026 · Greater Phoenix Economic Council · June 2026
14 / 14
Crittenden Company · Research Services
100,000 New Residents. Every Year. Without Fail.
The most mechanically reliable retail demand growth in American CRE. Amplified by TSMC's semiconductor workforce, California's outbound migration, and no state income tax pulling income upward. Phoenix retail at 6.4% cap rates is a gift wrapped in complexity that most investors are still unwrapping.